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Possible consequences of current developments

  1. ML being unserious?

    • Benefits: If machine learning (ML) is taken less seriously, it could lead to a more relaxed and creative approach to problem-solving. This could potentially foster innovation, spark new ideas, and encourage out-of-the-box thinking within the field. Additionally, it may help reduce the pressure and stress that researchers or developers often face in the ML industry.

    • Ramifications: However, not taking ML seriously could also result in a lack of rigor and discipline in research and development efforts. This might lead to subpar results, unreliable models, and a general decline in the quality of ML applications. It could also harm the reputation of the industry as a whole and hinder progress in solving complex problems through ML.

  2. For people working on ML at big tech/hedge funds, what percentage of alphas do you feel come from noise mainly?

    • Benefits: Understanding the percentage of alphas derived from noise in ML applications can help practitioners better evaluate the reliability and efficacy of their models. By identifying and reducing the impact of noise, researchers and developers can improve the accuracy and efficiency of their algorithms, leading to more robust and effective solutions.

    • Ramifications: Relying heavily on alphas derived from noise could result in misleading conclusions, flawed decisions, and ineffective strategies in the ML field. It may lead to wasted resources, missed opportunities, and decreased trust in ML technologies. Consequently, accurately assessing the contribution of noise to alphas is crucial for ensuring the legitimacy and success of ML projects.

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GPT predicts future events

  • Artificial general intelligence (2028):

    • AGI could be achieved in 2028 as advancements in machine learning and neural networks are progressing rapidly. Researchers are continuously making breakthroughs in AI technology, bringing us closer to the creation of a system that can perform any intellectual task that a human can.

  • Technological singularity (2045):

    • The technological singularity may occur in 2045 due to the exponential growth of technology that is expected to surpass human intelligence, leading to a transformative event in society. As more industries adopt AI and automation, the potential for a singularity event becomes more likely.